EL Nino effect in Burma.

According to observations recorded by 25 El Nino watch groups around the world, there is a 50 per cent probability in August and a 70 per cent probability in November.Dr. Tun Lwin said that only a strong El Nino could affect Burma.“The epicenter of El Nino is far from Burma. The epicenter is located near Peru and Ecuador in South America,” Tun Lwin told Mizzima. An El Nino leads to drought and very high temperatures.El Nino condition is based upon the Oceanic Nino Index. When water temperature is 5 degree Celsius higher than normal temperatures in the sea, an El Nino can occur. If it is nine degree higher than normal, a strong El Nino will occur.In 2010, lakes, ponds and wells dried up in Mon, Arakan, and Shan states, Rangoon, Pegu, Irrawaddy, Sagaing, Mandalay and Magwe regions because of El Nino. Temperatures reached 47 degree Celsius in Myinmu in Sagaing Region, 46.5 degree in Myinchan in Mandalay Region, 45 degree in Monywa (Sagaing Region) and Magwe (Magwe Region), and 44.8 degree in Nyaungoo in Mandalay Region.

“El Nino can spoil a monsoon. It causes drought, so the whole country could suffer bad consequences. I don’t want to say that El Nino can affect only Central Burma. It can affect the whole country. There is little rain in Central Burma even in normal conditions so you could say that Central Burma could be severely affected,” Tun Lwin said.There is more than a 50 per cent probability that an El Nino weather phenomenon will occur again in Burma this August, said Burmese meteorologist Tun Lwin. In 2010, some lakes dried up because of the EL Nino effect in Burma.